Weekly Market Update - November 3, 2025

# Market Note — 3 November 2025 ### Momentum into November: prices accelerate, vacancies tight, RBA in focus tomorrow **At a glance** - **Home values rose ~1.1% in October (national, combined capitals)** — the fastest monthly gain in over two years, led by Perth; every capital posted a rise. - **Inflation (Q3 CPI) printed 1.3% q/q and 3.2% y/y**, keeping the RBA vigilant. Rate decision due **Tuesday, 4 Nov 2025**; consensus expects **no change**. - **Vacancy still near record lows** (Sep national ~**1.2%**), keeping rental conditions tight into the end of year. October read due shortly. - **Auctions eased this week (~2,173 scheduled)** due to the Melbourne Cup long weekend, after last week’s very strong volumes. --- ## Prices & momentum Price growth strengthened through October. Across the combined capitals, the home value index rose about **1.1% m/m**, with **broad-based gains across all cities** and a standout pace in **Perth (~1.9% m/m)**. It’s the **fastest monthly lift in more than two years**, and values are up roughly **~6% since February**. **Investor angle:** accelerations like this often coincide with low stock levels and resilient buyer depth. Expect more price dispersion by city; Perth continues to lead, while Hobart lags but remains positive. --- ## Rents & vacancies Australia’s **national vacancy rate held around 1.2% in September**, one of the tightest readings on record and little changed from August. Tight vacancy implies **ongoing rental price pressure into Q4**, particularly in inner-metro markets absorbing migration and student flows. (October data typically lands mid-month.) --- ## Macro watch: inflation & the RBA The **September-quarter CPI** rose **1.3% q/q (3.2% y/y)**, with **Housing (+2.5% q/q)** a major contribution. The **RBA meets tomorrow (Tue 4 Nov)**; most desks expect **no change** to the cash rate, with focus on updated forecasts and any guidance on 2026 inflation glide-path. **What it means for investors:** a hold keeps borrowing costs steady, but funding spreads and serviceability buffers still matter. Don’t assume cheaper debt near-term; base-case planning should use today’s rates plus a prudent buffer. --- ## Auctions & liquidity pulse Following the busiest week since pre-Easter, **scheduled auctions dipped to ~2,173** across the combined capitals this weekend, largely due to **Melbourne Cup** timing. Clearance rates remain city-specific, but the **drop in volumes is seasonal**, not a demand signal. For reference, portals will publish the final weekend clearance rates later today; expect some noise given the reduced Melbourne activity. --- ## Credit flow (early read) The ABS **Lending Indicators** detailed a modest lift through **Q2 2025**, and the **Q3 release is due 12 Nov**. We’ll be watching investor lending and first-home activity for signs that finance approvals are following the price momentum. --- ## Strategy notes for property investors - **Lean into undersupplied corridors.** Tight vacancy continues to support rental growth; yields remain most attractive where new supply is constrained. - **Be city-selective.** Momentum leadership sits with **Perth**; **Brisbane** has constructive fundamentals; **Sydney/Melbourne** are steadier with micro-market splits by dwelling type and affordability bands. - **Finance discipline.** Assume steady rates short-term; maintain buffers and consider staged purchase strategies while we await Q3 lending and the RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy. --- ### The week ahead - **Tue 4 Nov:** RBA policy decision and Statement on Monetary Policy. - **By mid-Nov:** October **vacancy rates** (SQM) and **Lending Indicators (Q3)**. *Prepared by Firm Foundations Property — Market Intelligence Monday*