← All Market Notes

Market Update — Monday, 12 January 2026

By Tom Johnston, Lead Buyers Agent

As the market reopens after the holiday lull, prices are holding, rentals remain tight, and investor activity is gradually rebuilding.

Headline summary

Australia’s housing market is easing back into activity after the December–January slowdown, with early indicators pointing to stability rather than reset. National prices are holding, rental markets remain undersupplied, and investor participation is rebuilding as buyers re‑engage with listings. While transaction volumes are still light, the underlying fundamentals entering 2026 continue to favour well‑selected investment assets.

National overview (prices and auctions)

CoreLogic’s most recent national results confirm that dwelling values finished 2025 on a firm footing, with modest growth recorded through the December quarter before the expected seasonal pause. Importantly, there has been little evidence of broad‑based price discounting over the holiday period, suggesting vendor confidence has carried into the new year.

Auction markets are only just restarting, with clearance rates and volumes still below peak levels. Early January results should be treated cautiously, as limited supply can exaggerate week‑to‑week movements. That said, buyer enquiry levels are lifting, particularly in suburbs where listings remain scarce and quality stock is tightly held.

Rentals (vacancy and yields)

Rental conditions remain a key pillar of support for the market. National vacancy rates remain well below long‑term averages, and January is traditionally one of the strongest months for leasing activity. Household movement linked to employment changes, education commencements and relocations typically drives heightened demand through the first quarter.

While the pace of rent growth has moderated from earlier peaks, advertised rents remain materially higher than a year ago. This has helped sustain investor yields despite higher interest rates. Suburbs with limited new supply, strong employment access and family‑oriented housing continue to show the most resilience, while markets with higher concentrations of new apartments remain more balanced.

Lending and finance (investor activity)

Investor lending activity is re‑emerging after the seasonal slowdown. Finance approvals finalised late in 2025 are now translating into renewed buyer activity, particularly from investors who used the quieter period to prepare and refine acquisition criteria. This “prepared buyer” cohort often shapes early‑year competition.

Although borrowing costs remain elevated, stable pricing and strong rental fundamentals are supporting investor confidence. The key dynamic to watch is selectivity: investors are increasingly focused on cash‑flow resilience and long‑term demand drivers rather than chasing short‑term growth narratives.

Risks and watch‑items

  • Low early‑year stock: Limited listings can drive competition quickly in popular suburbs.
  • Interest‑rate sensitivity: Changes in rate expectations could influence sentiment later in Q1.
  • Uneven rental conditions: Some pockets may see temporary easing as new supply completes.
  • Over‑reliance on national averages: Performance will vary meaningfully at the suburb level.

Firm Foundations Property perspective

The opening weeks of the year are less about headline growth and more about positioning. Markets are not uniformly hot or cold — they are constrained, selective and increasingly driven by local fundamentals. Investors who prioritise quality locations, defensible rental demand and conservative cash‑flow assumptions are best placed to navigate renewed competition as activity builds.

Rather than rushing decisions, this is a period to move deliberately. Early‑year opportunities often emerge where vendors test pricing expectations or where prepared buyers can act decisively on well‑researched assets.

Conclusion

As 2026 begins, Australia’s housing market is transitioning smoothly out of its seasonal lull. Prices are holding, rental markets remain tight, and investor activity is rebuilding. While volumes will lift gradually through January, disciplined asset selection and local insight remain the defining advantages for investors.

Contact: info@firmfoundationsproperty.com.au