By Tom Johnston, Founder & Strategic Investment Advisor
National values edge higher as Cotality data shows steady gains, tight vacancies persist, and investor lending trends gradually upward.
Australia’s housing market is entering March with broad stability and targeted strength. Dwelling values are rising modestly, vacancy rates remain structurally tight, and investor participation is trending higher in a controlled manner. The pattern is not speculative acceleration — it is gradual reinforcement across multiple indicators.
Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) reports that national dwelling values recorded another monthly increase through February, extending the sequence of measured gains seen since the start of the year. The pace of growth remains moderate, but it is consistent across most capitals.
Brisbane and Perth continue to show firm buyer demand supported by population growth and limited new supply. Sydney is steady, while Melbourne is stabilising following softer conditions in 2025. The strength is most evident in well-located, middle-priced segments rather than prestige stock.
Auction markets are reflecting this balance. Clearance rates are holding around the mid-60% range nationally, indicating firm but not overheated conditions. Listing volumes have improved slightly compared to late 2025 but remain below long-term averages in several markets, limiting downward price pressure.
Rental markets remain one of the strongest supports of the current cycle. SQM Research’s latest data shows vacancy rates near historic lows across Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, with national vacancy levels still constrained.
While rental growth has moderated from peak 2023–2024 levels, the absolute level of rents remains materially higher than two years ago. This supports holding capacity and buffers serviceability, particularly for investors who acquired assets during the softer 2025 window.
The structural imbalance between population growth and dwelling completions continues to underpin rental demand. Until supply meaningfully expands, vacancy rates are unlikely to normalise quickly.
Recent ABS lending indicators show investor commitments trending gradually higher, consistent with improving sentiment but not speculative excess. Credit growth remains orderly, with serviceability buffers still embedded in lending assessments.
Importantly, borrowing conditions have stabilised. Rate expectations are clearer, and funding markets are less volatile than they were mid-cycle. This clarity tends to support transactional confidence without creating destabilising surges in activity.
None of these factors currently indicate acute downside risk, but they remain important macro variables.
The present phase is characterised by gradual reinforcement rather than acceleration. That distinction matters. Markets built on controlled credit expansion, tight rental conditions and measured listing supply tend to be more durable than those driven by speculation.
For disciplined investors, this remains a constructive environment. The advantage sits with those prioritising:
As activity builds incrementally, competition will follow. Acting before sentiment shifts more broadly remains strategically advantageous.
March begins with steady gains, tight rental markets and gradually improving investor participation. Conditions are constructive but require discipline. In this phase of the cycle, structure and asset quality matter more than momentum headlines.
Contact: info@firmfoundationsproperty.com.au